2019年3月18日 星期一

Infineon 4Q18財報之不完整摘要

2019/2

4Q18營收+11% YoY
BB ratio 1.1

1. Automotive(ATV): -2% QoQ, +10% YoY, BB ratio 1.1
2. Industrial Power Control(IPC): -2% QoQ, +19% YoY, BB ratio 1.1
3. Power Management & Multimarke(PMM)t: -5% QoQ, +13% YoY, BB ratio 0.9
4. Digital Security Solutions(DSS): -9% QoQ, -8% YoY, BB ration 1.3


唯一BB ratio <1 amp="" font="" ndustrial="" ommunication="" omputing="" onsumer="" ower="" segment="" sensors="" style="background-color: yellow;">PMM領域和台灣的重疊度相對比較高。

1Q19 Guidance

Revenues in 1Q19 to remain flat QoQ.
ATV and DSS to grow QoQ, IPC flat QoQ, PMM to decline by a mid-single-digit %

"At the midpoint of the guided revenue range, we expect a segment result margin of 16% of sales, burdened by annual price declines in particularly in ATV and DSS, which usually occur in the first calendar quarter, and some inventory corrections."
即使需求很強(BB ratio達到1.1X and 1.3X)的ATV和DSS segment,還是有例行的年度價格下降和庫存調整 
F2019 Guidance (F2019=4Q18~3Q19)
"Adding together the actual figures for the first(4Q18) and our projections for the second quarter(1Q19), plus our expectations of a decent seasonal recovery in late spring, early summer, we should be able to reach the lower end of the range that we guided for in November, which was 11% plus or minus 2 percentage points. In other words, we expect annual revenue growth of around 9%, meaning that Infineon will again significantly outgrow both the total semiconductor market as well as its particular market segments."
和2018/11月公佈F2019可成長11%的guidance +-2%比較,2019/2的F2019 guidance位於下緣,降到+9% YoY。ATV還是最強,PMM較弱,DSS衰退。
"ATV is expected to grow faster than group average. IPC should see growth at -- and PMM below the average for the group. DSS revenues are expected to decline by a low to mid-single-digit percentage."

2018年底PMM通路庫存上升5~10%,1Q19因此出貨下降,尤其是低電壓low power PMM領域產品,但價格沒有被影響,還是平穩,預期1Q19季底恢復正常
整體CAPEX下降,主要在Dresdent廠和Kulim廠,建設中的Villach新廠不受影響,預計2021年量產
加速投資在high voltage MOS and IGBT相關設備,因為需求很強,still in allocation
PMM雖然demand差,但公司有外包,減輕自有工廠的衝擊(意味先降外包訂單),但是自有工廠還是有受影響而無法滿載, "we do see some underutilization in our own factories, mainly Dresden 200 as well as Temecula a little bit in the back end, but again most of it is at th outsourced  - in the oursourced volumes"
庫存上升主要在PMM領域,low-voltage MOSFETs,需要一到兩季清理
預期汽車數量年度成長只有1%,但是傳統汽車衰退,xEV and ADAS成長,並且content提高
And it's extremely important to highlight that, especially in Automotive, a lot of the second half ramps we are foreseeing really is centered around these fast-growing themes. There is still a significant gap between the customer demand and what we can ship. And by virtue of ramping our capacity for xEV and ADAS and also bringing AURIX up, we can basically deliver the bulk of the growth in ATV. And this is why we are so confident about the second half recovery in ATV. It's not so much driven by an assumption that unit growth will kick back into gear.
We have still products in strong allocation. So there lead times are still rather high, whereas in other areas lead times have come down quite substantially. So it's a spread picture anywhere between regular lead times and still very high lead times for some of our items.
針對吃緊的品項,F2H19(2Q19~3Q19)會擴充更多產能來滿足需求,因為之後lead time也會縮短
And these items are in particular the structural growth drivers that we've mentioned earlier, whereby Dominik said that we will be bringing on more capacity in our, in the second half of the year. And so, therefore, chances are that the lead times will come down later in the year but certainly not now on these areas.
12"(300mm) Dresdon廠現有產能fully loaded,預計到2021年產能呈現線性成長

 
在建中的Villach 12"新廠,將增加明顯得power semiconductors產能,預計2020年中設備移入,early 2021年量產,主要技術產品為IGBT和MOSFET for all end markets,不是只有汽車用,是所有應用領域,表示Infineon並未放棄PMM PC、手機、consumer市場
 
 
 
12"新廠產能逐年擴增,依照Infineon的規模屬於$4bn等級,假設年成長率9%的情況下,五年可以滿載,產出$2bn的營收,超過現在年營收的一半。這個產能擴增是很大的。
 
 
未來五年,Infinieon計劃CMOS邏輯產品外包比例從~50%增加到~70%,但Power類產品,因為foundry產能有限,主要靠自有產能擴建來支應。整體前段晶圓製造外包比例將從~22%提高到~30%。  
 
 
Infieon在:MOSFET的市佔率高達26%,比第二名的ON Semi高出一倍多。

整個二月份Infineon法說釋出的訊息,包括: 看好汽車長期需求成長、汽車和IPC用部分高壓產品,還是屬於供應吃緊,產能分配,但其他一般產品供需鬆動,庫存需要清理,尤其是PMM領域,但Infineon認為一、兩季之後,將恢復正常,下半年會比較好。

2019年2月27日 星期三

Alpha & Omega (AOSL) 4Q18財報之不完整摘要

4Q18財報

營收US$114.9M,flat QoQ, +11% YoY
靠高價值新產品的成長抵抗市場挑戰

MOSFET營收US$93M, +1% QoQ, +10% YoY
Power IC營收US$19M, flat QoQ, +23% YoY
(大部分是MOSFET,和台灣MOSFET design houses很像,只是AOSL是IDM)

Computing 49%, Consumer 16%, Power Supply/Industrial 19%, Communication 14%, Service 2%
(AOSL的應用領域比例,和台灣MOSFET公司非常接近,都是中低壓PC/Consumer應用比較多)
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 29.2% (前季29.7%),去年同期27.4%
不含重慶廠 ramp up costs US$3.5M
Non-GAAP OPEX excluded 重慶廠 pre-production expenses US$3.7M

重慶12"晶圓廠持股51%
1Q19開始ramp up封測生產線,開始product sampling和客戶qualification process

home appliances和smartphone applications需求持續疲弱,1Q19擴展到high-end smartphone需求,客戶在降低庫存,讓AOSL必須調整生產計劃,中美貿易戰也有影響。
4Q18 AOSL在home appliances和smartphone applications市場贏得一些策略客戶訂單、在Computing市場擴大佔有率,並且在high-end Tablet產品BOM表中擴大供貨佔比。
經過這些調整,對AOSL來說,需求還是超過產能,Oregon fab滿載生產,期望ramping重慶廠之後能滿足需求。

AOSL的優勢在於R&D能力、1800個全球專利(包含申請中)、Total solution components(MOSFET、IGBT、Power IC)、deep system-level application know-how。

Computing (48%): 4Q18 +11% QoQ/+26% YoY
Growth by expanding BOM content
Power IC for Vcore
Design wins for latest graphics card platform
New global tablet OEM,切入Communication客戶的Tablet battery protection business.
1Q19還是有 CPU缺貨問題,預期2Q19解決
We are adjusting our forecast of Computing business marginally down for 1Q19.

Consumer (16%), 4Q18 -13% QoQ/+12% YoY
4Q18衰退因為TV季節因素和Chinese home appliance需求疲弱
IGBT仍有斬獲
IGBT 2018全年成長40% YoY,2019年也會有類似的成長
Gainning market sahre in refrigerator applications
New customers for Chinese home appliance market
Design wins for premium TV
We allocate more capacity and expect healthy growth in the Consumer segment for 1Q19

Power Supply and Industrial (20%), 4Q18 +2% QoQ/+7% YoY
Momentum for medium voltage product line
The trend for Quick charger and USB PD charger increasing voltage and current which requires more efficient MOSFET with higher ASP.
Even the near-term softening in the smartphone market,  we expect our quick charger business to expand in 2019.
A slight decrease in this segment in 1Q19.

Communication (14%), 4Q18 -11% QoQ/+10% YoY
需求持續疲弱,中國手機客戶調整庫存,但有得到新的全球手機品牌客戶,3Q18得到一家,4Q18得到第二家,1Q19持續放量,此外也有一些5G電信設備design wins
有信心1Q19是通訊業績的谷底,2Q19回升

1Q19 guidance

營收US$109~113M
Gross margin 25.2%+-1%
Non-GAPP Gross margin  28.5%+-1%
不含重慶廠ramp up cost US$3.2M,另有US$4.4M ramp up cost認列在OPEX

已經看到2Q19客戶訂單有回升,包含中國客戶和全球客戶,手機市場回升,加上CPU不在缺或,讓PC市場也回升

We did see some adjustments in 4Q18 in terms of booking and backlog.
Double booking clean up. Some customers especially in China smartphone customers are adjusting their booking.
Seeing fresh bookings from our new design wins.
Right now, after all those adjustments and then our backlog is still ahead of our capacity at this moment.
For 12" fab, trial production in 4Q18, sampling out in 1Q19, ramping up in 2Q19 maybe or 3Q19 certainly

Currently, our capacity is around US$115M range. The next wave of the capacity increase will depend on the ramp of 重慶12"廠,we want to ramp that fab and gradually in 2019 to fulfill the demand and fuel our growth. Some customers may qualify faster. Even right now, we've already received the first order from customers. We sill need sometime to qualify with customers. So I will say that probably in a quarter or two, we should be able to see some ramp up.

During the ramp up time, I would not expect to see a cost benefit, actually to the contrary. Once we ramp up to that first phase capacity, I would expect our 12" fab wafer cost neutralize with our 8" fab wafers and so.




現有8" fab在美國Oregon,  可創造目前約US$115M per quarter的營收,重慶12" fab Phase 1可創造額外US$150M營收,因為AOSL是IDM,本身有產品和終端客戶,不像foundry需要透過fabless讓產能得到出海口,因此在ramp up的過程,應該會比foundry快些。

2019年2月24日 星期日

世界先進(VIS) 4Q18財報之不完整摘要

4Q18業績

Wafer shipments 590K -3% QoQ/+9% YoY
ASP +2% QoQ to US$424,主要是product mix影響
估計UTR 95% (估計3Q18 UTR=98%)
Gross margin 38%

1Q19 guidance

營收-8~13% QoQ
Gross margin 34.5~36.5%
估計UTR 88%
TV/DDI、Consumer、Smartphone需求非常弱,5G相對強, Industry也比較穩定

2019不確定性增加,謹慎看待2019年產業景氣,但是8"因為很多specialty製程,需求還是相對不錯,2Q19雖然也有可能景氣回升,但3Q19才回升的機率比較大

Power相關產品的需求很好,5G基地台電流變大,Power IC需求增加,如果Power IC整合Logic、Analog,這種會在12"廠做,單純的PMIC還是在8"廠為主

用US$2.36bn買下格芯(Globalfoundries)的新加坡8" 3E廠, 可增加40K/m wafer capacity,裡面有Logic製程設備和MEMS製程設備,Logic部份只買下資產,不包含客戶,MEMS則包含資產、客戶、IP。
現在就可以開始合作接收、認證,2020/1/1就可以開始投片VIS自己的產品
採購成本轉成折舊之後,折舊成本比現有的三個廠高

Raw wafer過去shortage而漲價,2019年shortage舒解很多,現在產業中也沒有所有的8"廠都滿載,有些國際大廠,比較新的客戶,outsourcing某些新的製程產品到VIS,外包到VIS的部分佔客戶整體晶圓需求比重不高,這種訂單會比較穩定,客戶能例也比較強,也比較不受景氣影響






2019年2月20日 星期三

聯電(UMC) 4Q18財報之不完整摘要

4Q18財報

4Q18開始看到整個半導體供應鏈的需求變弱和存貨修正,美中貿易爭議更創造了額外的不確定性(意味中美貿易戰只是加速因素而不是促使本次景氣下行循環的主因)
營收-9.8% QoQ,其中wafer shipment -5.2% QoQ
Gross margin 13%
產能利用率(UTR)從前季94%降到88%
ASP下降因為14nm從前季5%減少為1%,主要是因為加密貨幣IC疲弱
28nm也從前季13%降到10%
2018全年28nm從前一年15%降到13%,14nm從前一年1%增加到3%
2018 CAPEX US$650M,2019 CAPEX US$1bn
2017 CAPEX 25%在8"廠,主要在和艦,75%在12"廠,主要在新加坡Fab 12i增加65nm產能
2019總體產能沒有增加
 
1Q19 guidance

中階和低階手機需求疲弱、加密貨幣需求衰退
wafer shipment -6~7% QoQ,28nm大約持平QoQ,主要是40nm下滑,這是暫時性的,因為有許多65/55nm產品將轉到40nm
ASP -1~2% QoQ
Gorss margin 5% ,比4Q18的13%大幅降低,主要因為產能利用率下降
UTR 80%,8" close to 100%(4Q18 ove 100%)、12" low 70%(4Q18 mid-70%)
8"晶圓需求在4Q18也看到佔實性的手機需求下滑和庫存調整,產能利用率從4Q18的over 100%降到1Q19的close to 100%,長線對8"需求還是正面看待,因為有PMIC、MCU、Automotive、IoT等需求,UMC強化specialty process例如RF、SOI、BCD、embedded NVM
本波庫存修正會持續到1Q19以後
希望2019年營收服和產業
28nm over capacity, 目前UMC tape out的28nm 70%都是High-K,但ramp up還要一段時間
UMC重視投資回收,因此重點在specialty processes on existing nodes,聚焦在specialty and mature technology,RD資源放在diversity of technology area,例如Power IC、Display driver、RF Switch、MCU
UMC先進製程將停在14nm,we have no plans to go beyond 14 at this point






 

要計算8"營收和UTR,90nm比較麻煩,因為8"和12"都可以做90nm,假設UMC 90nm大部分在12"做
3Q18 8" wafer製程比重0.11/0.13um以下,合計38%,3Q18 394E x 38% = 150E
4Q18 8" wafer製程比重0.11/1.13um以下,合計42%,4Q18 x 42% = 149E
4Q18的8" wafer營收大致持平,UMC說4Q18 8" UTR "over 100%", 1Q19 "close 100%",就假設
4Q18 8" UTR 103%, 1Q19 97%,掉6%。

8" wafer capacity合計902K/m,6"+8"=993K/m,分別佔全公司產能1,937K/m的47%和51%