4Q18營收+11% YoY
BB ratio 1.1
1. Automotive(ATV): -2% QoQ, +10% YoY, BB ratio 1.1
2. Industrial Power Control(IPC): -2% QoQ, +19% YoY, BB ratio 1.1
3. Power Management & Multimarke(PMM)t: -5% QoQ, +13% YoY, BB ratio 0.9
4. Digital Security Solutions(DSS): -9% QoQ, -8% YoY, BB ration 1.3
唯一BB ratio <1 amp="" font="" ndustrial="" ommunication="" omputing="" onsumer="" ower="" segment="" sensors="" style="background-color: yellow;">PMM領域和台灣的重疊度相對比較高。
1Q19 Guidance
Revenues in 1Q19 to remain flat QoQ.
ATV and DSS to grow QoQ, IPC flat QoQ, PMM to decline by a mid-single-digit %
"At the midpoint of the guided revenue range, we
expect a segment result margin of 16% of sales, burdened by annual price
declines in particularly in ATV and DSS, which usually occur in the first
calendar quarter, and some inventory corrections."
即使需求很強(BB ratio達到1.1X and 1.3X)的ATV和DSS segment，還是有例行的年度價格下降和庫存調整
F2019 Guidance (F2019=4Q18~3Q19)
"Adding together the actual figures for the
first(4Q18) and our projections for the second quarter(1Q19), plus our expectations of a
decent seasonal recovery in late spring, early summer, we should be able to
reach the lower end of the range that we guided for in November, which was 11%
plus or minus 2 percentage points. In other words, we expect annual revenue
growth of around 9%, meaning that Infineon will again significantly outgrow
both the total semiconductor market as well as its particular market segments."
和2018/11月公佈F2019可成長11%的guidance +-2%比較，2019/2的F2019 guidance位於下緣，降到+9% YoY。ATV還是最強，PMM較弱，DSS衰退。
2018年底PMM通路庫存上升5~10%，1Q19因此出貨下降，尤其是低電壓low power PMM領域產品，但價格沒有被影響，還是平穩，預期1Q19季底恢復正常
在建中的Villach 12"新廠，將增加明顯得power semiconductors產能，預計2020年中設備移入，early 2021年量產，主要技術產品為IGBT和MOSFET for all end markets，不是只有汽車用，是所有應用領域，表示Infineon並未放棄PMM PC、手機、consumer市場
12"新廠產能逐年擴增，依照Infineon的規模屬於$4bn等級，假設年成長率9%的情況下，五年可以滿載，產出$2bn的營收，超過現在年營收的一半。這個產能擴增是很大的。
未來五年，Infinieon計劃CMOS邏輯產品外包比例從~50%增加到~70%，但Power類產品，因為foundry產能有限，主要靠自有產能擴建來支應。整體前段晶圓製造外包比例將從~22%提高到~30%。
Infieon在:MOSFET的市佔率高達26%，比第二名的ON Semi高出一倍多。
整個二月份Infineon法說釋出的訊息，包括: 看好汽車長期需求成長、汽車和IPC用部分高壓產品，還是屬於供應吃緊，產能分配，但其他一般產品供需鬆動，庫存需要清理，尤其是PMM領域，但Infineon認為一、兩季之後，將恢復正常，下半年會比較好。
"ATV is expected
to grow faster than group average. IPC should see growth at -- and PMM below
the average for the group. DSS revenues are expected to decline by a low to
mid-single-digit percentage."
2018年底PMM通路庫存上升5~10%，1Q19因此出貨下降，尤其是低電壓low power PMM領域產品，但價格沒有被影響，還是平穩，預期1Q19季底恢復正常
整體CAPEX下降，主要在Dresdent廠和Kulim廠，建設中的Villach新廠不受影響，預計2021年量產
加速投資在high voltage MOS and IGBT相關設備，因為需求很強，still in allocation
PMM雖然demand差，但公司有外包，減輕自有工廠的衝擊(意味先降外包訂單)，但是自有工廠還是有受影響而無法滿載， "we do see some underutilization in our own factories, mainly Dresden 200 as well as Temecula a little bit in the back end, but again most of it is at th outsourced - in the oursourced volumes"
庫存上升主要在PMM領域，low-voltage MOSFETs，需要一到兩季清理
預期汽車數量年度成長只有1%，但是傳統汽車衰退，xEV and ADAS成長，並且content提高
And it's extremely important to highlight that,
especially in Automotive, a lot of the second half ramps we are foreseeing
really is centered around these fast-growing themes. There is still a
significant gap between the customer demand and what we can ship. And by virtue
of ramping our capacity for xEV and ADAS and also bringing AURIX up, we can
basically deliver the bulk of the growth in ATV. And this is why we are so
confident about the second half recovery in ATV. It's not so much driven by an
assumption that unit growth will kick back into gear.
We have still products in strong allocation. So there lead times are still rather high, whereas in other areas lead times have come down quite substantially. So it's a spread picture anywhere between regular lead times and still very high lead times for some of our items.
針對吃緊的品項，F2H19(2Q19~3Q19)會擴充更多產能來滿足需求，因為之後lead time也會縮短
And these items are in particular the structural growth drivers that we've mentioned earlier, whereby Dominik said that we will be bringing on more capacity in our, in the second half of the year. And so, therefore, chances are that the lead times will come down later in the year but certainly not now on these areas.
12"(300mm) Dresdon廠現有產能fully loaded，預計到2021年產能呈現線性成長
And these items are in particular the structural growth drivers that we've mentioned earlier, whereby Dominik said that we will be bringing on more capacity in our, in the second half of the year. And so, therefore, chances are that the lead times will come down later in the year but certainly not now on these areas.
12"(300mm) Dresdon廠現有產能fully loaded，預計到2021年產能呈現線性成長
12"新廠產能逐年擴增，依照Infineon的規模屬於$4bn等級，假設年成長率9%的情況下，五年可以滿載，產出$2bn的營收，超過現在年營收的一半。這個產能擴增是很大的。
未來五年，Infinieon計劃CMOS邏輯產品外包比例從~50%增加到~70%，但Power類產品，因為foundry產能有限，主要靠自有產能擴建來支應。整體前段晶圓製造外包比例將從~22%提高到~30%。
整個二月份Infineon法說釋出的訊息，包括: 看好汽車長期需求成長、汽車和IPC用部分高壓產品，還是屬於供應吃緊，產能分配，但其他一般產品供需鬆動，庫存需要清理，尤其是PMM領域，但Infineon認為一、兩季之後，將恢復正常，下半年會比較好。
